自1970年代初以来，已经开发并改进了质谱仪和不连贯的散射雷达（MSIS）模型家族。 MSI的最新版本是海军研究实验室（NRL）MSIS 2.0经验大气模型。 NRLMSIS 2.0提供物种密度，质量密度和温度估计作为位置和空间天气条件的功能。长期以来，MSIS模型一直是研究和运营社区中的大气模型的流行选择，但与许多模型一样，并未提供不确定性估计。在这项工作中，我们开发了基于机器学习（ML）的外层温度模型，该模型可与NRLMSIS 2.0一起使用，以相对于高保真卫星密度估计值校准其。我们的模型（称为MSIS-UQ）没有提供点估计，而是输出一个分布，该分布将使用称为校准误差评分的度量进行评估。我们表明，MSIS-UQ的DEMIAS nRLMSIS 2.0导致模型和卫星密度之间的差异减少25％，并且比太空力量的高精度卫星阻力模型更接近卫星密度。我们还通过生成物种密度，质量密度和温度的高度曲线来显示模型的不确定性估计功能。这明确证明了外层温度概率如何影响NRLMSIS 2.0内的密度和温度曲线。另一项研究显示，相对于单独的NRLMSIS 2.0，迅速过冷的能力提高了，从而增强了它可以捕获的现象。

机器学习（ML）通常被视为一种黑盒回归技术，无法提供相当大的科学见解。 ML模型是通用函数近似器，如果正确使用，则可以提供与用于拟合的地面数据集有关的科学信息。 ML比参数模型的好处是，没有预定义的基础函数限制可以建模的现象。在这项工作中，我们在三个数据集上开发了ML模型：太空环境技术（SET）高精度卫星阻力模型（HASDM）密度数据库，这是Jacchia-Bowman 2008经验热层密度模型（JB2008），Jacchia-Bowman 2008经验的空间端段匹配数据集，以及具有挑战性的Minisatellite有效载荷（Champ）的加速度计衍生的密度数据集。将这些ML模型与海军研究实验室质谱仪和不相互分的散射雷达（NRLMSIS 2.0）模型进行比较，以研究中热层中传感后冷却的存在。我们发现NRLMSIS 2.0和JB2008-ML都不能说明后冷却，因此在强烈的地磁风暴（例如2003年万圣节风暴）之后的时期内表现不佳。相反，HASDM-ML和Champ-ML确实显示了传感后冷却的证据，表明这种现象存在于原始数据集中。结果表明，根据位置和暴风雨强度，速度1-3天的密度降低可能会发生1--3天。

治疗效应的预测方法异质性陈述的重点是基线风险，作为治疗效果的强大预测指标，并为RCT环境中基于风险的治疗效应异质性提供了指导。这项研究的目的是使用标准化的可伸缩框架将这种方法扩展到观测设置。拟议的框架包括五个步骤：1）研究目的的定义，即人口，治疗，比较者和感兴趣的结果； 2）识别相关数据库； 3）开发感兴趣结果的预测模型； 4）在调整观察到的混杂状态后，对预测风险的层中相对和绝对治疗效果的估计； 5）结果。我们通过评估血管紧张素转换酶（ACE）抑制剂与β受体阻滞剂对三个疗效和三个观测数据库中的六个安全结果的影响来证明我们的框架。提出的框架可以补充任何比较有效性研究。我们提供了一个公开可用的R软件包，以将此框架应用于映射到观察性医学结果伙伴关系伙伴关系模型的任何数据库。在我们的演示中，急性心肌梗死风险低的患者对所有三种疗效结果都获得了可忽略的绝对收益，尽管他们在最高风险季度更为明显，尤其是对于心力衰竭的住院治疗。但是，即使调整了观察到的混杂，诊断失败也显示出残余失衡的证据。我们的框架允许评估风险层面的差异治疗效果，这为考虑替代治疗之间的利益障碍权衡提供了机会。

Making histopathology image classifiers robust to a wide range of real-world variability is a challenging task. Here, we describe a candidate deep learning solution for the Mitosis Domain Generalization Challenge 2022 (MIDOG) to address the problem of generalization for mitosis detection in images of hematoxylin-eosin-stained histology slides under high variability (scanner, tissue type and species variability). Our approach consists in training a rotation-invariant deep learning model using aggressive data augmentation with a training set enriched with hard negative examples and automatically selected negative examples from the unlabeled part of the challenge dataset. To optimize the performance of our models, we investigated a hard negative mining regime search procedure that lead us to train our best model using a subset of image patches representing 19.6% of our training partition of the challenge dataset. Our candidate model ensemble achieved a F1-score of .697 on the final test set after automated evaluation on the challenge platform, achieving the third best overall score in the MIDOG 2022 Challenge.

Supervised Question Answering systems (QA systems) rely on domain-specific human-labeled data for training. Unsupervised QA systems generate their own question-answer training pairs, typically using secondary knowledge sources to achieve this outcome. Our approach (called PIE-QG) uses Open Information Extraction (OpenIE) to generate synthetic training questions from paraphrased passages and uses the question-answer pairs as training data for a language model for a state-of-the-art QA system based on BERT. Triples in the form of <subject, predicate, object> are extracted from each passage, and questions are formed with subjects (or objects) and predicates while objects (or subjects) are considered as answers. Experimenting on five extractive QA datasets demonstrates that our technique achieves on-par performance with existing state-of-the-art QA systems with the benefit of being trained on an order of magnitude fewer documents and without any recourse to external reference data sources.

While the capabilities of autonomous systems have been steadily improving in recent years, these systems still struggle to rapidly explore previously unknown environments without the aid of GPS-assisted navigation. The DARPA Subterranean (SubT) Challenge aimed to fast track the development of autonomous exploration systems by evaluating their performance in real-world underground search-and-rescue scenarios. Subterranean environments present a plethora of challenges for robotic systems, such as limited communications, complex topology, visually-degraded sensing, and harsh terrain. The presented solution enables long-term autonomy with minimal human supervision by combining a powerful and independent single-agent autonomy stack, with higher level mission management operating over a flexible mesh network. The autonomy suite deployed on quadruped and wheeled robots was fully independent, freeing the human supervision to loosely supervise the mission and make high-impact strategic decisions. We also discuss lessons learned from fielding our system at the SubT Final Event, relating to vehicle versatility, system adaptability, and re-configurable communications.

While the brain connectivity network can inform the understanding and diagnosis of developmental dyslexia, its cause-effect relationships have not yet enough been examined. Employing electroencephalography signals and band-limited white noise stimulus at 4.8 Hz (prosodic-syllabic frequency), we measure the phase Granger causalities among channels to identify differences between dyslexic learners and controls, thereby proposing a method to calculate directional connectivity. As causal relationships run in both directions, we explore three scenarios, namely channels' activity as sources, as sinks, and in total. Our proposed method can be used for both classification and exploratory analysis. In all scenarios, we find confirmation of the established right-lateralized Theta sampling network anomaly, in line with the temporal sampling framework's assumption of oscillatory differences in the Theta and Gamma bands. Further, we show that this anomaly primarily occurs in the causal relationships of channels acting as sinks, where it is significantly more pronounced than when only total activity is observed. In the sink scenario, our classifier obtains 0.84 and 0.88 accuracy and 0.87 and 0.93 AUC for the Theta and Gamma bands, respectively.

Vocal Bursts -- short, non-speech vocalizations that convey emotions, such as laughter, cries, sighs, moans, and groans -- are an often-overlooked aspect of speech emotion recognition, but an important aspect of human vocal communication. One barrier to study of these interesting vocalizations is a lack of large datasets. I am pleased to introduce the EmoGator dataset, which consists of 32,040 samples from 365 speakers, 16.91 hours of audio; each sample classified into one of 30 distinct emotion categories by the speaker. Several different approaches to construct classifiers to identify emotion categories will be discussed, and directions for future research will be suggested. Data set is available for download from https://github.com/fredbuhl/EmoGator.

Charisma is considered as one's ability to attract and potentially also influence others. Clearly, there can be considerable interest from an artificial intelligence's (AI) perspective to provide it with such skill. Beyond, a plethora of use cases opens up for computational measurement of human charisma, such as for tutoring humans in the acquisition of charisma, mediating human-to-human conversation, or identifying charismatic individuals in big social data. A number of models exist that base charisma on various dimensions, often following the idea that charisma is given if someone could and would help others. Examples include influence (could help) and affability (would help) in scientific studies or power (could help), presence, and warmth (both would help) as a popular concept. Modelling high levels in these dimensions for humanoid robots or virtual agents, seems accomplishable. Beyond, also automatic measurement appears quite feasible with the recent advances in the related fields of Affective Computing and Social Signal Processing. Here, we, thereforem present a blueprint for building machines that can appear charismatic, but also analyse the charisma of others. To this end, we first provide the psychological perspective including different models of charisma and behavioural cues of it. We then switch to conversational charisma in spoken language as an exemplary modality that is essential for human-human and human-computer conversations. The computational perspective then deals with the recognition and generation of charismatic behaviour by AI. This includes an overview of the state of play in the field and the aforementioned blueprint. We then name exemplary use cases of computational charismatic skills before switching to ethical aspects and concluding this overview and perspective on building charisma-enabled AI.

Research has shown that climate change creates warmer temperatures and drier conditions, leading to longer wildfire seasons and increased wildfire risks in the United States. These factors have in turn led to increases in the frequency, extent, and severity of wildfires in recent years. Given the danger posed by wildland fires to people, property, wildlife, and the environment, there is an urgency to provide tools for effective wildfire management. Early detection of wildfires is essential to minimizing potentially catastrophic destruction. In this paper, we present our work on integrating multiple data sources in SmokeyNet, a deep learning model using spatio-temporal information to detect smoke from wildland fires. Camera image data is integrated with weather sensor measurements and processed by SmokeyNet to create a multimodal wildland fire smoke detection system. We present our results comparing performance in terms of both accuracy and time-to-detection for multimodal data vs. a single data source. With a time-to-detection of only a few minutes, SmokeyNet can serve as an automated early notification system, providing a useful tool in the fight against destructive wildfires.